Macroeconomics and Political Economy Group

Members of the Macroeconomics and Political Economy Research Group cover a wide range of topics including

• the latest developments in DSGE modelling
• monetary and fiscal policy
• international finance
• economic growth and development
• political economy
• monetary history
• macroeconomic impact of immigration.

The group have produced numerous publications in 4* and 3* rated economic journals and its members have been in receipt of grants from the EU, ESRC and HMT/HMRC. PhD students in the group have gone on to work at the IMF, Bank of England and the UNDP.

Staff

• Professor Michael Ben-Gad
• Professor Saqib Jafarey
• Dr Claudia Jefferies
• Dr Seefat-E-Rabbi Khan
• Professor Paul Levine, Honorary Visiting Professor
• Dr Clement Minauder
• Professor Joseph Pearlman
• Professor Keith Pilbeam
• Dr Orkun Saka
• Professor Giulia Iori
• Dr Levent Celik

PhD students

• Nikolaos Koufos (supervisor: Dr O. Saka & Prof. Keith Pilbeam)
• Rowlando Morgan (supervisor: Prof M. Ben-Gad and Prof J. Pearlman)
• Vittorio Siracusa (supervisor: Prof M. Ben-Gad and Prof J. Pearlman)
• Alexandro Sotirios Sokianos (supervisor: Prof M. Ben-Gad and Prof J. Pearlman)
• Mohamed Zahran, Essays on the Macroeconomics of Uncertainty (supervisor: Prof J. Pearlman and Prof S. Jafarey)
• Johnson Nyella, The Effcts of Mobile Money on Monetary Policy in  Developing Country Contexts (supervisor: Prof S. Jafarey and Prof J. Pearlman)
• Nayab Kanwal, Aging and Inequality (supervisor: Dr G. Faggio and Prof. S. Jafarey)

Past PhD students

• Vania Esady, 2020, The Role of Expectation Formation for Macroeconomic Policy, supervisors: Prof M. Ben-Gad and Prof J. Pearlman. First Placement: Bank of England
• Zamid Aligishiev, 2020, Essays on the effects of government expenditure stimulus, supervisors: Prof M. Ben-Gad and Prof J. Pearlman. First Placement: International Monetary Fund
• Azar Sultanov, 2021, The Impact of Immigration on Public Debt: A Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, supervisors: Prof M. Ben-Gad and Prof J. Pearlman. First Placement: UNDP and International Monetary Fund
• Ivy Sabuga, 2022, The interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies in dynamic macro models, supervisors: Prof M. Ben-Gad and Prof J. Pearlman. First Placement: International Monetary Fund
• Monika Junicke, 2014, Theoretical and Empirical Contributions to Monetary Policy Analysis, supervisors: Prof M. Ben-Gad. First Placement: University of Cagliari
• Syed Amir Hosseini, 2019, Essays on the Political Economy of Institutional Reform, supervisors: Prof S. Jafarey and Dr T. Gabrielli First Palcement: McKinsey & Co

Publications

2022

• Saka, O., Eichengreen, B. & C. G. Aksoy, Epidemic exposure, financial technology, and the digital divide, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Forthcoming.
• Saka, O., Eichengreen, B. & C. G. Aksoy, The Political scar of epidemics, The Economic Journal, Forthcoming.
• Ben-Gad, M., Pearlman, J. and Sabuga, I. An analysis of monetary and macroprudential policies in a DSGE model with reserve requirements and mortgage lending. Economic Modelling, 116, doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105966.
• Ben‐Gad, M. Russia versus the West: Facing the long‐term challenge. Economic Affairs, 42(2), pp. 385–394. doi:10.1111/ecaf.12535
• Clement Minaudier, The Value of Confidential Policy Information: Persuasion, Transparency, and Influence, The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Volume 38, Issue 2, July 2022, Pages 570–612

2021

• Saka, O., Eichengreen, B. & C. G. Aksoy, Revenge of the experts: Will COVID-19 renew or diminish public trust in science?. Journal of Public Economics, 2021.
• Saka, O. & C. Bircan, Lending cycles and real outcomes: Costs of political misalignment, The Economic Journal, 2021.

2020

• Saka, O., Domestic Banks as lightning rods? Home bias and information during the Eurozone crisis, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2020.
• Ben-Gad, M., Ben-Haim, Y. and Peled, D. Allocating Security Expenditures under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 31(7), pp. 830–850. doi:10.1080/10242694.2019.1625518.
• Celik, L., Karabay, B. and McLaren, J., Fast-track authority: A hold-up interpretation, Journal of International Economics, 2020.
• Goenka, A., Jafarey, S., Pouliot, W.. Pollution, Mortality and Time Consistent Abatement Taxes, Journal of Mathematical Economics. DOI:10.1016/j.jmateco.2020.01.004

2019

• Kleine, M., & Minaudier, C. Negotiating under Political Uncertainty: National Elections and the Dynamics of International Co-operation. British Journal of Political Science,  49(1), 315-337

2018

• Ben-Gad, M. On the Political Economy of Deficit Bias and Immigration. The Economic Journal, 128(614), pp. 2191–2221. doi:10.1111/ecoj.12502.
• Iori, G., Jafarey, S, and Gurgone, A., The Effects of Interbank Networks on Efficiency and Stability in a Macroeconomic Agent-Based Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, pp.257-288, DOI:10.1016/j.jedc,2018.03.006

2017

• Ben-Gad, M. The Optimal Taxation of Asset Income when Government Consumption is Endogenous: Theory, Estimation and Welfare. Economic Inquiry, 55(4), pp. 1689–1711. doi:10.1111/ecin.12463.
• Ben-Gad, M., (panel member and contributing author). National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi.org/10.17226/23550.

2016

• Celik, L. and Karabay, B., Veto players and equilibrium uniqueness in the Baron-Ferejohn model, Theory and Decision, 2016

2015

• Saka, O., Fuertes, A-M & E. Kalotychou, ECB policy and Eurozone fragility: Was De Grauwe right?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015.
• Celik, L., Karabay, B. and McLaren, J., When is it optimal to delegate: The theory of fast-track authority, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2015. 
• Gabbi, G., Iori. G., Jafarey, S., Porter, J., Financial Regulations and Bank Credit to the Real Economy,  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, pp.117-143, doi: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.07.002

2013

• Celik, L., Karabay, B. and McLaren, J., Trade policy-making in a model of legislative bargaining, Journal of International Economics, 2013.

2008-2011

• Aksoy, Yunus & Melina, Giovanni, 2011. "U.S. fiscal indicators, inflation and output", The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), 221-236.
• Aksoy, Yunus & Melina, Giovanni, 2012. "An empirical investigation of US fiscal expenditures and macroeconomic outcomes", Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol.114(1), 64-68.
• Basu, P., Gillman, M. & Pearlman, J, 2012, "Inflation, Human Capital and Tobin's q", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36(7), 1057-74.
• Batini, B., Levine, P & Pearlman, J., 2009, "Monetary Rules in Emerging Economies with Financial Market Imperfections", in NBER Conference Volume, International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, ed. J. Gali & M. Gertler.
• Batini, N., Levine, P. & Pearlman, J., 2009,"Estabilización óptima del tipo de cambio en una economía dolarizada con meta inflacionaria ," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, 37-82.
• Ben-Gad, M, 2012, "The Two Sector Endogenous Growth Model: An Atlas,"Journal of Macroeconomics , 34, 706-722.
• Ben-Gad, M, 2008, "Capital-Skill Complementarities and the Immigration Surplus" Review of Economic Dynamics , 11, 335-365.
• Callegari, G, Melina,G & Batini, N, 2012. "Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan," IMF Working Papers 12/190, International Monetary Fund.
• Cantore, C, Levine, P, Melina, G & Yang, Bo, 2012. "A fiscal stimulus with deep habits and optimal monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), 348-353.
• Cantore, C, Levine, P,Melina, G & Pearlman, J, 2013. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Rules in Normal and Abnormal Times," Working Papers 16, Department of Economics, City University London.
• Costantini, M, Fragetta, M. & Melina, G., 2013. "Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the EMU. An Optimal Currency Area Perspective," Working Papers 13, Department of Economics, City University London.
• Ellison, M & Pearlman, J, 2011. "Saddlepath learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), 1500-1519, July.
• Fragetta, M & Melina, G, 2013, "Identification of monetary policy in SVAR models: a data-oriented perspective," Empirical Economics , Springer, vol. 45(2), 831-844. Fragetta, M & Melina, G, 2011. "The Effects Of Fiscal Policy Shocks In Svar Models: A Graphical Modelling Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(4), 537-566, 09.
• Gabriel, V, Levine, P and Pearlman, J, 2012, "A DSGE Model of India", The Oxford Handbook of the Indian Economy.
• Jafarey, S & Lahiri, S, 2009, "Developing country borrowing from a monopolistic lender: strategic interactions and endogenous leadership",The Japanese economic review, 60, 191-207.
• Levine, P, Lotti, E, Pearlman, J and Pierse, R 2010, "Growth And Welfare Effects Of World Migration," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 57(5), 615-643.
• Levine, P, McAdam, Pearlman, J, 2012, "Probability Models and Robust Policy Rules", European Economic Review, 56(2), 246-262.
• Levine, P., McAdam, P. and J. Pearlman, J, 2009. ''Quantifying and Sustaining Welfare Gains from Monetary Commitment'', Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 55(7), 1253-1276.
• Levine, P, Pearlman, J, Perendia, G, Yang, B. 2012, "Endogenous Persistence in an Estimated DSGE Model under Imperfect Information", Economic Journal , 122 (565), 1287-1312,
• Levine, P., Pearlman, J. and  R. Pierse, 2008, "Linear-Quadratic Approximation, External Habit and Targeting rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 32(10), 3315-3349.
• Levine, P., Pearlman, J. and B, Yang, 2008, ''The Credibility Problem Revisited: Thirty Years on from Kydland and Prescott'', Review of International Economics
• Melina, G & Villa, S, 2013. "Fiscal Policy and Lending Relationships," IMF Working Papers 13/141, International Monetary Fund.
• Pilbeam, K. and Nagle, S. 2009, "High-Tech IPOs in the US, UK and Europe after the Dot-Com Bubble" International Journal of Financial Services Management,. vol 4, no 1, pp.64-75.
• Pilbeam and Obolevicuite, N. 2012, "Does Foreign Direct Investment Crowd in or Crowd out Domestic Investment? Evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Asymmetries, vol 9, no 1, pp.89-104.
• Pilbeam, K., Olmo J., and Pouliot,W. 2011, "Detecting the Presence of Insider Trading via Structural Break Tests", Journal of Banking and Finance, vol 35, no 11, pp.2820-2828.
• Pilbeam, K. and J. Olmo, J., 2011, "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Exchange Market Efficiency: A Re-Examination of the Evidence,"International Journal of Finance and Economics. vol 16, pp.189-204.
• Pilbeam. K. and Olmo, J. ,2011, "The Forward Discount Puzzle and Market Efficiency." Annals of Finance, vol 7, No 1, pp.119-135.
• Pilbeam. K. and Olmo, J., 2009, "Are Rejections of Uncovered Interest Parity Valid?" Journal of Economic Integration, vol 24, no 2, pp370-385.
• Pilbeam. K. and Olmo, J., 2009, "The Profitability of Carry Trades," Annals of Finance, vol 5, no 2. pp.231-241.
• Pilbeam, K. and Noronha, R. 2008, "Risk Budgeting and Value at Risk,"International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance , vol 1 no 2, pp.162-176 .
• Tsoukis, C, Kapetanios, G and Pearlman, J, 2011, "Elusive Persistence: Wage And Price Rigidities, The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), 737-768.